We want to answer a difficult and fun question: What are the chances for each team to win the World Cup? To do this, we simulated the tournament tens of thousands of times. In this way, we can calculate the probability that each team will make it to the round of 16, play in the semi-finals or win the tournament.
This is our updated estimate:
THE POSSIBILITY TO REACH EVERY STAGE AND WIN THE WORLD CUP
This data tells us which teams are favorites and to what extent. They also catch a fact: The World Cup is pretty unpredictable. People expect the favorite to win, but the data says this is rare: Brazil had a better chance of winning than any other team at the start, but only won one on four occasions.
Rates are updated daily. You can see the forecasts for the previous days in the selector above the table. The chart below shows how each team’s chances of winning the World Cup vary.
Below we explain how the model works, starting with a game…
Simulate your own world
By clicking the button below, you can simulate a World Cup with the model from the first day and see who won. If you click again, you will run a second simulation and you will definitely win another one. The winners are collected in the table.
If you play with this for a while, you will find that the winning percentages are getting closer to the table at the start. He will do it slowly because luck is like that.
how does the model work
Our estimates are the result of running thousands of simulations that are only partially random like the ones above. In each match, the probability of one team or the other team winning depends on their statistics. For example, if Brazil plays against Saudi Arabia, the probability of Brazil winning is around 87%.
The model has three parts:
1. How strong is each team? We use two metrics to capture this: your final results (as measured by Elo rankingan original method of chess, now also using the official FIFA ranking) and the quality of its players (measured in euros by data from the website) transfer sign).
2. Who wins each game? Given the two teams and power metrics, we developed a model with thousands of matches to predict how likely each outcome is. The model tells the probability of victory, draw and defeat, and even the probability of each sign. For example, in this hypothetical duel between Brazil and Saudi Arabia, the most likely outcomes are 2-0 and 3-0, each with around 14%.
3. And to predict the whole World Cup? What we’re doing is simulating match by match, match by match. We repeat this thousands of times to have 100,000 possible World Cups so we can estimate the probability of each event. If Brazil wins the tournament in 23,000 of 100,000 simulations, it’s because they have a 23% chance.
Inside methodology page We provide other details. Here are more results.
Forecasts at the final stage
The table shows the probability that each team will pass the last 16 rounds. From the quarter-finals, the two teams and two percentages with the highest chance of reaching that fork are shown: they correspond to the probability of each team reaching the fork and defeating their opponent.
What do other predictions say?
There are other similar estimates as well. In the table below, we show three more that we found interesting: Analyst, dues predictions from around thirty bookies and predictions community metaculus.
PROBABILITY OF WINNING A WORLD CUP BY OTHER PREDICTIONS
Do you want more information?
in methodology You can read more details about the model: a comprehensive explanation of how it works, frequently asked questions, and a review of the 2018 release.
Design: Ignacio Povedano
Interactive simulator: Jose A. Alvarez Iguacel
Development: Carlos Munoz
Statistical model: Kiko Llaneras and Borja Andrino
Coordination: Brenda Valverde Rubio and Guiomar del Ser
Art Direction: Fernando Hernandez
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